Submit probability estimates on real-world questions. Your Prophet Score measures calibration using the Brier method. This is a skill-based forecasting exercise, not gambling.
Will US CPI inflation fall below 3% on a year-over-year basis by September 2026?
Will a non-English-language film win Best Picture at the 2027 Academy Awards?
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?
Will the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate at least once before the end of 2026?
Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch successfully before December 31, 2026?
Will the United States pass federal AI regulation legislation before the 2026 midterm elections?
Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-5 before July 1, 2026?
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone at WWDC 2026?
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup produce more than 170 total goals across all 104 matches?
Will the 2026 US midterm elections result in Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives?
Will at least one G7 nation impose a new package of sanctions on Russia before July 1, 2026?
Will 2026 set a new global average surface temperature record, surpassing 2023 as the hottest year on record?
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup be watched by more than 5 billion cumulative viewers globally?
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey?
Will NASA's Artemis II crewed mission successfully complete its lunar flyby and return to Earth?
Will a video game adaptation win a major Emmy Award by end of 2025?
Will the WHO declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?
Will a new UN Security Council resolution on climate change pass in 2025?
Will a GLP-1 weight loss drug receive approval for a new indication (e.g., heart failure) in 2025?
Will a major G20 country announce a complete phase-out of coal power by 2035 in 2025?
Will NASA's Artemis program successfully land astronauts on the Moon before end of 2026?
Will the host nation win a medal in football/soccer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Will global music streaming revenue exceed $30 billion in 2025?
Will Arctic sea ice extent reach a new record low in summer 2025?
Will global renewable energy capacity additions exceed 500 GW in 2025?
Will a non-English language film win Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards?
Will Taiwan hold a presidential election without military conflict in 2026?
Will a private company successfully complete a crewed mission to the International Space Station in 2025?
Will the Paris 2024 Olympics break the record for total medals won by a single country?
Will a women's sports team generate over $1 billion in annual revenue by end of 2025?
Will a new antibiotic effective against drug-resistant bacteria receive FDA approval by end of 2025?
Will global average temperatures in 2025 exceed the 1.5°C pre-industrial baseline?
Will the global number of electric vehicles on the road exceed 50 million by end of 2025?
Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least twice in 2025?
Will global oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for more than 30 consecutive days in 2025?
Will SpaceX successfully land humans on Mars before 2030?
Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before end of 2025?
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before the end of 2026?
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% by end of 2025?
Will the James Webb Space Telescope confirm evidence of a potentially habitable exoplanet atmosphere by end of 2025?
Will a major AI model (GPT-5 or equivalent) be publicly released before the end of 2025?
Will a commercially viable nuclear fusion reactor produce net energy by end of 2026?
Will a G7 country enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) in 2025?
Will Bitcoin's price exceed $150,000 at any point in 2025?
Will a quantum computer achieve 'quantum advantage' on a commercially relevant problem by end of 2025?
Will a new UN Security Council resolution on climate change pass in 2025?
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% by end of 2025?
Will a G7 country enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) in 2025?
Will global oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for more than 30 consecutive days in 2025?
Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before end of 2025?
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